Episode 3 · Transaction Data, Bidding Wars & ValuationsUpdated 2026
Eureka Valley Market: Prices, Days on Market, Inventory
Eureka Valley is known as a fast market where most homes sell above their asking price, and this page shows how far above, how quickly buyers sign and what happens to a home that comes back for a second try. It also shows why price per square foot, not the median price, carries the price signal, and how thin supply has become against last year.
Median sale price
Houses $3,565,000 · Condos $1,550,000
Houses +27.3% · Condos +3.5% vs the prior 52 weeks
52 weeks to 14 September 2026, houses n = 58, condos n = 69
Median days to contract
12 days
-2.5 days vs the prior 52 weeks
From listing to contract, not to closing, all homes, 52 weeks to 14 September 2026, n = 144
Closed above the original ask
76.1%
+15.3 pts vs the prior 52 weeks
108 of 142 closings with an original ask, all homes, 52 weeks to 14 September 2026
Homes for sale now
8
19 a year earlier
All homes for sale, weekly count for the week of 13 September 2026
💡 Key Insights & Takeaways
- Sale-to-list moved from 105.7% in 2025 to 115.8% in 2026, on 128 and 102 closings, and 78.8% of 2026 closings landed above the original asking price.
- A quarter of homes take 38 days or more to go under contract, where days on market means list to pending, so the tail is real even in a fast market.
- Price per square foot rose from $1,207 for 2025 closings to $1,437 for 2026 closings, and it is the price signal here, because the recent mix leans toward condominiums.
- A second listing attempt took a median 25.5 days to contract and cleared 99.8% of asking, against 14 days and 105.0% for a first attempt.
- Over the last 13 weeks there were 24 new listings against 26 a year earlier, while listings coming off the market unsold fell from 11 to 1.
If you are deciding what to offer in Eureka Valley, one figure decides it: 2026 closings landed at 115.8% of the original asking price, up from 105.7% a year earlier. The median home goes under contract in 14 days. Eight homes are on the market as of 14 September 2026, against 19 a year ago.
At a glance
| As of | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sale-to-list, 2026 closings | 115.8% (n=102) | 2026-09-14 |
| Median days to contract | 14 days (n=962) | 2026-09-14 |
| Homes on the market now | 8 | 2026-09-14 |
| Weeks of supply | 3.2 weeks | 2026-09-14 |
| Closings in the last 52 weeks | 144 | 2026-09-14 |
Days on market here means list-to-pending — the days from the day a home is listed to the day it goes under contract, not to the day it closes. Coverage on the pending date is 99.9%, so no fallback was needed.
How long does a Eureka Valley home take to sell?
The median home goes under contract in 14 days. Half of all closings go under contract inside 14 days, and a quarter take 38 days or more, so the tail is real even in a fast neighborhood. Measured to the closing date instead, the median runs 38 days — that gap is escrow, not market time, which is why we report list-to-pending.
| Measure | Value | n | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median days to contract | 14 days | 962 | 2026-09-14 |
| 75th percentile | 38 days | 962 | 2026-09-14 |
| Share under 14 days | 51.0% | 962 | 2026-09-14 |
Watch the pending date rather than the closing date when you judge how fast a street is moving.
Are Eureka Valley homes selling above asking?
Most of them are. Across all the closings in the data, 60.0% landed above the original asking price, and the median premium was 13.0%. In 2026 closings alone the share rises to 78.8%.
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 | n | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sale-to-list | 105.7% | 115.8% | 128 / 102 | 2026-09-14 |
| Price per square foot | $1,207 | $1,437 | 128 / 102 | 2026-09-14 |
That is a step change rather than a drift, and both measures move the same way. Cash accounted for 21.0% of closings. The hottest band is $2.0m to $3.0m, where 67.7% of closings landed above asking (n=229).
Write your offer against what has closed, and never against what the listing asks.
What do Eureka Valley homes actually cost?
The median single-family closing was $2,750,500 (n=402) and the median condominium closing was $1,500,000 (n=448). Those are two different markets and they should not be averaged.
One number on this page will mislead you if you read it alone. The median closing price in the recent window is below the trailing baseline of $1,895,000. Prices did not fall. The recent window is weighted toward condominiums, so what changed is what sold and not what it sold for. Price per square foot is the price signal here, and it rose from $1,207 to $1,437. Read the two together or read neither.
What happens to a home that comes back for a second listing?
It costs the seller both the clock and the price. 11.9% of closings here were the same home relisted after a first attempt.
| First attempt | Second attempt | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median days to contract | 14 days (n=848) | 25.5 days (n=114) | 2026-09-14 |
| Sale-to-list | 105.0% (n=848) | 99.8% (n=114) | 2026-09-14 |
A second attempt takes nearly twice as long and clears just under its asking price, where a first attempt clears about 5% above it. Count the listing attempts before you treat an asking price as information.
Across the neighborhood, 3.36% of parcels changed hands in the last 52 weeks, and 90.1% of listings in the closed-sales data sold rather than being withdrawn.
What is available in Eureka Valley now?
Eight homes are on the market, which is 3.2 weeks of supply at the pace the last year of closings set. The median asking price across them is $1,995,000, and the pending ratio is 0.375.
| Measure | Now | A year ago | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes on the market | 8 | 19 | 2026-09-14 |
| Weeks of supply | 3.2 weeks | 9.9 weeks | 2026-09-14 |
One place supply is piling up. Homes between $2.5m and $4m are 25% of what is for sale and 14.6% of what has sold. That band is where a buyer has room and a seller has company.
Note that these active-listing figures come from the week-by-week count of homes on the market, over different windows than the closed-sales data, so they will not reconcile to the unit with the closing counts above, and we do not force them to.
What changed in Eureka Valley against last year?
Supply has more than halved, down 57.9% against the same week a year ago. The flow decomposition says which side did it, and it was not sellers.
| Flow, last 13 weeks | Now | Same weeks a year ago | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| New listings | 24 | 26 | 2026-09-14 |
| Went under contract | 27 | 20 | 2026-09-14 |
| Came off the market unsold | 1 | 11 | 2026-09-14 |
| Sell-through | 97.1% | 69.4% | 2026-09-14 |
New listings barely moved. Contracts rose, and listings coming off unsold fell from 11 to 1. This is demand pulling stock off the market, and not a seller strike. Counts matter more than shares on a base this small: on a stock of eight homes, one listing is 12.5%.
What does this mean for your offer in Eureka Valley?
- If you are selling, February and April are the strongest months to list. February closings ran at 108.5% of asking with a 13-day median to contract (n=81), and April carries the highest pending ratio of the year at 0.528.
- If you are buying, look at July, August and November. Those are the months with the most choice and the least competition: 13.9% of July listings come off the market unsold, more than any other month, and the share going under contract falls with them. That is about choice, not about price — no data tells you what a price will do next.
- If you are bidding on a first-time listing, expect company and write clean. Three-quarters of 2026 closings went above asking.
- If the home is on its second attempt, the clock is working for you and the sale-to-list history says so.
- If your budget sits between $2.5m and $4m, you have more standing inventory to choose from than the sold record would suggest.
- If you are buying, look at July, August and November. Those are the months with the most choice and the least competition: 13.9% of July listings come off the market unsold, more than any other month, and the share going under contract falls with them. That is about choice, not about price — no data tells you what a price will do next.
- If you are bidding on a first-time listing, expect company and write clean. Three-quarters of 2026 closings went above asking.
- If the home is on its second attempt, the clock is working for you and the sale-to-list history says so.
- If your budget sits between $2.5m and $4m, you have more standing inventory to choose from than the sold record would suggest.
Common questions
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