Episode 3 · Transaction Data, Bidding Wars & ValuationsUpdated 2026
Hayes Valley Housing Market November 2026
Hayes Valley’s recent closings show how a strategic asking price can differ from a completed-sale value. A short final listing clock can also omit earlier attempts. This guide compares asking-price outcomes, contract timing and the historical calendar while keeping reconstructed supply separate from a verified list of homes available for a tour.
Median sale price
$1,164,000
-5.9% vs the prior 52 weeks
Median days to contract
13 days
-8 days vs the prior 52 weeks
Closed above the original ask
68.3%
+12.7 pts vs the prior 52 weeks
Homes for sale now
32
37 a year earlier
💡 Key Insights & Takeaways
- In the recent window, 67.9% of 28 valid priced closings finished above their own original asking price.
- Across 29 recent closings, the median sale price was $1,340,000 and median list-to-pending time was 13 days.
- The latest weekly measure counted 32 active homes, but historical open episodes require an availability check.
- Weekly stock was unchanged over 13 weeks, against a seasonal pattern that usually adds 33.9%.
- January through March ranked for listing, while October through December ranked for buyer choice across nine complete years.
As of 1 November 2026, 67.9% of valid recent priced closings finished above their original ask. The 29-sale recent window had a median list-to-pending time of 13 days. Those outcomes compare sales with their own launch prices, so they cannot establish appreciation of the same home or a rule for every property.
What should you compare at a glance?
Caption: Recent window 1 August–1 November 2026, observed through 28 October; weekly stock through 25 October.
| Measure | Value and scope |
|---|---|
| Closed listings | 29 recent closings, with 28 valid asking-price comparisons |
| Median sale price | $1,340,000, pooled property forms |
| Median days to contract | 13 days, listing to pending |
| Weekly active stock | 32 homes, reconstructed covered house/condo states |
What are homes selling for relative to the ask?
In the recent window, 67.9% of 28 valid priced closings finished above their own original asking price. Across 29 recent closings, the median sale price was $1,340,000 and median list-to-pending time was 13 days. The pooled sample contains different ownership forms and sizes, including restricted-sale units. It is not an unchanged basket of homes.
One extreme original-ask entry is withheld from asking-price comparisons without guessing its intended value. The reported closing price remains in price-level summaries. Above asking describes the closing price relative to that listing’s own initial ask; it is not profit, appreciation since purchase or evidence of a particular number of offers.
What changed over the longer price windows?
The trailing 52-week median sale price was $1,164,000, down 5.9% against the prior 52 weeks. Median sale price per listed square foot rose 9.1%. These opposite directions are the finding: sizes and ownership forms changed, so a lower pooled closing median does not establish a uniform fall in property values. This is past evidence, not a forward price target.
The four key metrics use their labeled annual comparison or weekly stock basis. Their samples and definitions differ from the recent window. Keep those windows separate before comparing a headline number with a particular offer.
How should you read a second sale attempt?
The latest listing date can follow an earlier failed attempt. Compare the first sale ask, the latest ask and the closing outcome, using the elapsed span as well as the final contract clock. Rental episodes and marketing cycles before a verified acquisition are excluded from sale-attempt counts. Where acquisition is unverified, do not invent a current-owner reset or call a gross change profit.
A same-day recorded contract can also follow earlier negotiation or a change in terms. It is not proof of a same-day open-market bidding process. These individual histories are anecdotes, rather than evidence that restarting a listing causes a particular result.
What does the available-home measure show?
The latest weekly measure counted 32 active homes, but historical open episodes require an availability check. It covers house and condominium property states, including pseudo-properties outside its parcel denominator. It is not a verified live count for November. The recent calendar sales and native inventory windows also differ in dates and covered types; neither silently replaces the other.
Weekly stock was unchanged over 13 weeks, against a seasonal pattern that usually adds 33.9%. That is a negative 33.9-point residual against the calendar pattern, rather than a raw decline in the counted homes. Against the same week a year earlier, stock was 37. Check current alternatives before turning that reconstructed measure into a negotiating claim.
Which months have favored listing and buyer choice?
January through March ranked for listing, while October through December ranked for buyer choice across nine complete years. The calendar uses complete years 2017–2025 and independently scores contiguous ranges. Listing ranks combine supply, contract pressure and outcomes for homes launched in each month. Buying ranks describe historical choice and competition, not a promise of lower prices.
The buyer-price component uses an approximate contract-month adjustment based on the observed closing lag. Different property types can have different ranges and thin samples. Compare your readiness and the homes actually for sale before allowing a historical calendar to set the decision.
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