Episode 3 · Transaction Data, Bidding Wars & ValuationsUpdated 2026
Outer Sunset Market Guide: Sale Prices and Supply
Outer Sunset’s sales call for separate checks of what closed and what remains on offer. This guide compares closing prices, contract speed, asking-price outcomes and the listing calendar. You can use those measures to frame a search or sale while keeping the mix of homes and the age of each supply count in view.
Median sale price
$1,750,000
+12.9% vs the prior 52 weeks
Median days to contract
12 days
No change vs the prior 52 weeks
Closed above the original ask
88.7%
+0.8 pts vs the prior 52 weeks
Homes for sale now
6
17 a year earlier
💡 Key Insights & Takeaways
- The recent Outer Sunset sales window contains 12 closings for the 1 November 2026 reference, observed through 28 October. All 12 closed above their original asking price, a directional sample.
- Days to contract means listing to pending. The clock stops before closing, so you should keep it separate from the time needed to complete a purchase.
- The weekly count recorded 6 active homes and 8 pending homes on 25 October 2026. These small, reconstructed property counts do not confirm what you can tour today.
- February through April ranked best for listing across 9 complete years. The result describes a past calendar pattern, not a promise for your sale.
- August through October offered more choice and less competition across 9 complete years. No month held a stable supply extreme in every year.
The supply card refers to 25 October 2026, not to verified availability on 1 November 2026. It counts weekly property states across houses and condominium interests. Small counts can change sharply when a listing moves.
Outer Sunset’s annual median close rose 12.9% at the 1 November 2026 reference, with observations ending 28 October. The median price per square foot rose less, so the mix of homes still matters. Use that backward-looking change to compare sales rather than to predict a home’s next price.
Caption: This recent sales window runs from 1 August to 1 November 2026, with observations through 28 October. Its small samples are directional.
| Recent measure | Value | Sample and meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sale sequences | 12 | These are sales, not a count of unique houses across all time. |
| Share above the original ask | 100.0% | All 12 closings were above their own closing listing’s original ask. |
| Positive-area price-per-square-foot coverage | 9 closings | This is a directional subset of the 12 closings. |
What changed in Outer Sunset sale prices?
The median close rose to $1,750,000 across 63 closings in the trailing annual window. It was $1,550,000 across 66 closings in the preceding window. The current central half spans $1,471,500–$2,100,000; the prior central half spans $1,442,000–$1,630,000.
The median price per square foot rose from $1,100 to $1,177, a 7.0% change. Those measures cover 62 and 58 positive-area closings, respectively. Price per square foot means sale price divided by listed living area. Both price measures rose, but their different changes leave the mix of homes relevant. These are past sales, not a forecast of your home’s value.
Caption: These annual windows end on 1 November 2026 and 2 November 2025. Current observations end on 28 October 2026. Each central half is the range between the lower and upper quartiles.
| Measure | Trailing 52 weeks:3 November2025–1 November2026 | Prior 52 weeks:4 November2024–2 November2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sale sequences | 63 | 66 |
| Median close / central half | $1,750,000 / $1,471,500–$2,100,000 | $1,550,000 / $1,442,000–$1,630,000 |
| Median price per square foot / central half | $1,177 / $983–$1,350;n=58 | $1,100 / $957–$1,258;n=62 |
Different homes sold in each window. Compare legal form, measured space and condition before treating either median as a price guide for one home.
Are Outer Sunset homes selling above their asking prices?
The recent Outer Sunset sales window contains 12 closings for the 1 November 2026 reference, observed through 28 October. All 12 closed above their original asking price, a directional sample. That share was 85.4% among 123 closings with valid original asks in the earlier comparison period.
The earlier period runs from 30 September 2024 through 31 July 2026, about 22 months. It is shorter than the usual comparison span, so keep its exact dates with the figure. The asking-price test uses each sale’s own closing listing, rather than a much older attempt. A sale above an asking price does not measure how much that home gained in value.
Price-per-square-foot coverage is a separate check. It is available for 9 of the 12 recent closings, a directional subset. Missing or zero listed area does not become a guessed area. You should confirm which spaces are included before comparing rates between homes.
How long do Outer Sunset homes take to go under contract?
The annual median was 12 days from listing to pending in both matched windows, across 63 and 66 closings. The current central half spans 6–14 days; the prior central half spans 7–18.5 days. These are the same annual windows shown in the price table, observed through 28 October 2026.
Days to contract means listing to pending. The clock stops before closing, so you should keep it separate from the time needed to complete a purchase. A fresh listing date can also hide an earlier sale attempt. Read the earlier asking prices and dates when you compare a relisted home with a first attempt.
How much Outer Sunset supply was recorded at the latest weekly cutoff?
The weekly count recorded 6 active homes and 8 pending homes on 25 October 2026. These small, reconstructed property counts do not confirm what you can tour today. The active count was 17 a year earlier, on 26 October 2025. Weekly supply covers houses and condominium interests; it does not cover every residential building type. The count includes an extra listed interest outside the parcel denominator.
The active count fell from 7 to 6 over the preceding 13 weeks, a 14.3% decline. That is a small-count movement. The calendar pattern alone implied a 26.0% rise, making the observed change 40.3 percentage points below that path. The seasonal comparison rests on 9 complete years and does not explain the cause of the change.
Caption: These listing flows cover 27 July–25 October 2026 and the matching 28 July–26 October 2025 period. Stocks count properties; flows count listing episodes. The recent closing count is directional.
| Listing flow | Recent 13 weeks | Same weeks a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| New listings | 21 | 22 |
| New contracts | 18 | 16 |
| Closings | 11 (directional) | 20 |
The weekly closing window contains 11 sales, while the recent calendar window above contains 12. Their dates differ. Keep each total with its own window rather than combining them. Reconstructed weekly states can retain older open episodes, so confirm current status before planning a tour.
When has the listing calendar favored sellers and buyers?
February through April ranked best for listing across 9 complete years. The result describes a past calendar pattern, not a promise for your sale. The ranking weighs supply, contract pressure and the outcomes of homes grouped by their listing month.
August through October offered more choice and less competition across 9 complete years. No month held a stable supply extreme in every year. The calendar uses complete years from 2017 through 2025, not the incomplete current year.
The ranges answer different questions. A listing window weighs how homes marketed then performed; a buying window weighs choice and competition. The buying comparison shifts closing months back by about a month to reflect the gap after a contract. Treat that timing as an estimate, not an exact date for a future purchase.
How should you compare an Outer Sunset asking price with a sale?
Compare the home’s legal form, listed living area and condition before using a nearby closing as a price guide. An asking price is a starting point chosen for one listing. A closing price is the result of a completed sale. Neither proves what another home should cost.
Check the full sale-attempt history as well as the latest price. A restarted marketing clock does not erase earlier exposure. Gross changes between sale prices also omit work, financing and transaction costs. Use individual homes as examples of their own history, rather than proof of a neighborhood trend.
Common questions
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