Episode 3 · Transaction Data, Bidding Wars & ValuationsUpdated 2026
Outer Richmond Home Prices, Days on Market, Supply
Outer Richmond is a San Francisco neighborhood where houses make up most of the sales and the number of homes on the market stays small. The sections below cover what homes sold for against their first asking price, how quickly a contract was signed, and what is for sale today.
Median sale price
$1,938,000
+22.1% vs the prior 52 weeks
Median days to contract
13 days
No change vs the prior 52 weeks
Closed above the original ask
78.8%
+9.3 pts vs the prior 52 weeks
Homes for sale now
7 (small sample)
10 a year earlier
💡 Key Insights & Takeaways
- Outer Richmond had 8.0 closings a month in the three months to 27 October 2026, against 5.7 a month across the 20.9 months before.
- In the week of 25 October 2026, 7 Outer Richmond homes were for sale, against 10 a year earlier, and 4 other homes were under contract.
- The median sale price rose 22.1% and the median price per square foot gained 17.5% in the 52 weeks to 27 October 2026, but houses alone rose 12.0% and 10.1%, so part is mix.
- Across the 2.82 years to 27 October 2026, relisted homes closed at a median 1.6% over the original ask, against 14.7% for homes listed once.
- Across the nine full years from 2017 to 2025, January through March was the best run for listing, and August through October gave you the most choice and the least bidding.
The share of Outer Richmond homes closing above their original asking price rose from 71.7% to 91.7% in the three months to 27 October 2026, while the median home still went under contract in 12.5 days. Time on the market did not change. The bidding did, and the sale prices followed it.
At a glance
The rows below set out the main sales and supply figures. The sales rows cover the three months to 27 October 2026, and the supply row counts homes in the week of 25 October 2026.
| Measure | Value | Window |
|---|---|---|
| Closings | 24, at 8.0 a month | Three months to 27 October 2026 |
| Median sale price | $1,940,000 | Three months to 27 October 2026 |
| Closings above the original ask | 91.7% (n = 24) | Three months to 27 October 2026 |
| Median days to contract | 12.5 days | Three months to 27 October 2026 |
| Homes for sale, and homes under contract | 7 for sale, 4 other homes under contract | Week of 25 October 2026 |
Do Outer Richmond homes sell above their asking price?
Nearly all of them did in the three months to 27 October 2026. Of the 24 closings, 91.7% went above the original ask, against 71.7% across the 20.9 months before, which was 120 closings. By the original ask, we mean the opening price on a home's first listing. Against that price, the median closing came in 27.3% over, against 12.7% before.
The earlier period runs from 27 October 2024 to 26 July 2026. At 20.9 months it is shorter than the usual 24, so its figures do not line up with those of other communities.
Table 1 lines up the latest three months with the 20.9 months before.
Table 1. Outer Richmond closings in the three months to 27 October 2026 and in the 20.9 months before (27 October 2024 to 26 July 2026).
| Measure | Three months to 27 October 2026 | 20.9 months before |
|---|---|---|
| Closings | 24 | 120 |
| Closings per month | 8.0 | 5.7 |
| Median sale price | $1,940,000 | $1,820,000 |
| Median price per square foot | $1,128 | $980 |
| Closings above the original ask | 91.7% | 71.7% |
| Median closing price over the original ask | +27.3% | +12.7% |
| Median days to contract | 12.5 days | 13 days |
| Relisted share of closings | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Cash share of closings | 54.2% | 35.8% |
Few sellers cut their price on the way. Across the 2.82 years to 27 October 2026, 9.5% of the 199 closings had an asking price below the original by the time they went under contract.
A relist means a home went on the market again after an earlier listing ended. None of the 24 closings in the three months to 27 October 2026 was a relist, so the recent share is a zero on 24 closings, and the comparison rests on earlier sales. Across the 2.82 years to 27 October 2026, the 28 relisted homes closed at a median 1.6% over the original ask, against 14.7% for the 171 homes listed once. The relisted homes also took a median of 256.5 days from their first listing to go under contract.
The spread is wide at the edges. During the 13 weeks to 25 October 2026, the strongest sale closed at 167.8% of its original ask and the weakest closed at 96.9% of it. One home took 46 days to go under contract, against a median of 12. One home sold for 9.1% over its cut asking price, which was still 2.6% under its first price. Each is one sale, so read them as examples, not as a trend.
What do Outer Richmond homes sell for?
The median Outer Richmond home sold for $1,940,000 in the three months to 27 October 2026, against $1,820,000 for the 20.9 months before. Price per square foot was a median of $1,128 against $980. It is the sale price divided by the home's living area, which takes size out of the comparison. The recent figure rests on 24 closings and the earlier one on 116 of the 120.
The longer view agrees. Over the 52 weeks to 27 October 2026, the median sale price was $1,938,000 against $1,587,050 for the 52 weeks before. That is up 22.1%, and it rests on 85 closings in the latest 52 weeks. Over the same weeks the median price per square foot climbed 17.5%, from $903 to $1,062. With both measures up, the move is in prices and not only in which homes sold.
Part of the rise comes from the mix. Houses were 81.2% of closings in the latest 52 weeks against 72.9% in the 52 weeks before, and houses alone rose 12.0% on median sale price and 10.1% on price per square foot. All of this looks backward and none of it is a forecast.
The listing size and the county's size for one home differ by more than 20% in 28.8% of matched sales (213 of 740). So every price per square foot here uses the listing size, never the county's.
How long does an Outer Richmond home take to sell?
The median Outer Richmond home reached a contract 12.5 days after listing in the three months to 27 October 2026, against 13 days across the 20.9 months before. Here, days on market means list-to-pending, which counts from the listing date to the date a contract is signed and stops there, never at closing.
The speed held while the volume rose. Closings ran at 8.0 a month in the three months to 27 October 2026, against 5.7 a month across the 20.9 months before. More homes sold each month, and each one went under contract as fast as before.
How many Outer Richmond homes are for sale right now?
Counting the week of 25 October 2026, 7 Outer Richmond homes were on the market, and 4 other homes were under contract. A year earlier, 10 homes were for sale, so the count is down 30.0%. These counts include homes with a live listing; a listing recorded twice, or marked as a duplicate, counts once. Seven homes is a thin base, because one home is 14% of the count. Two of the 4 homes under contract have been under contract for months, and they are counted as the listing records carry them.
Weeks of supply measures how long the homes for sale would last if they sold at the rate of the past 13 weeks. The figure was 4.0 weeks, against 7.6 weeks a year earlier.
Supply rose from a summer low. The count was 3 homes 13 weeks earlier and is 7 now, up 133.3%. The season on its own would have added 31.9%, which is about 1 home. A base of 3 homes is small, so treat that rise as a direction, not a rule.
The median asking price of the 7 homes is $1,863,000. A quarter of them ask $874,000 or less and a quarter ask $2,190,000 or more. Homes first listed under $1,000,000 are 3 of the 7 for sale (42.9%), against 12 of the 80 closings (15.0%) in the 52 weeks to 25 October 2026, and all 3 are condominiums. These are shares of a very small count.
Table 2. Outer Richmond listing activity in the 13 weeks to 25 October 2026 and in the same 13 weeks a year before.
| Measure | 13 weeks to 25 October 2026 | Same 13 weeks a year before |
|---|---|---|
| Homes for sale at period end | 7 | 10 |
| New listings | 29 | 23 |
| Contracts signed | 23 | 18 |
| Closings | 23 | 17 |
| Listings that left the market without selling | 2 | 3 |
Sell-through counts the listings that left the market because they sold, as a share of all that left. It reached 92.0% in the 13 weeks to 25 October 2026 (23 of the 25 listings that left), against 85.0% a year before (17 of 20). The 2 listings that left without selling compare with 3 a year before, and both counts are small.
The weekly counts end on Sunday 25 October 2026 and use a separate tally of closings, which is why the 23 closings here differ from the 24 closings above. The two totals are left as they are.
When in the year do Outer Richmond homes sell best?
Across the nine full years from 2017 to 2025, January through March was the best run of months for listing a home, and August through October gave you the most choice and the least bidding, though not lower prices. July and September ranked last for listing, and February and March ranked last for buying.
Homes for sale were fewest in January and most numerous in October over those years, so the month with the fewest homes for sale falls inside the best run for listing. These are nine-year patterns and are directional, and the low and high months are not the same in every year. They describe past seasons and make no promise about the next.
How much of Outer Richmond changes hands in a year?
Very little. Across the 2.82 years to 27 October 2026, 4.5% of Outer Richmond's 4,317 residential parcels had a closed sale, about 1.6% a year. A parcel is a single lot on the county's map. That rate uses the 2.82 years and not the 20.9-month comparison period. So at any time you pick from a small slice of the neighborhood's homes.
Cash paid for 54.2% of closings in the three months to 27 October 2026, against 35.8% across the 20.9 months before. Cash is a floor, since some sales do not say how they were financed.
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