Golden Gate Estates and Marina Market: Prices, Days, Supply

Golden Gate Estates and Marina houses closed below their original asking price in 18 of 20 sales over the five years to 30 September 2026, at a median 89.6% of the ask. The one sale of the third quarter of 2026 fit that pattern, closing at 93.5% of its ask.

These are the headline figures for Golden Gate Estates and Marina as of 30 September 2026. The five-year window runs from 30 September 2021 to 30 September 2026 and holds 20 closings, every one a single-family house.

About four a year. The five years to 30 September 2026 hold 20 closings on 19 different houses, every one a single-family house, which is 0.3 a month across the five years and 0.3 a month in the latest quarter. Against the 93 houses in the neighborhood, 19 of them changed hands, a turnover of 20.43% over five years, or 4.09% a year. With 20 sales in five years, every split on this page, by year, by price or by type of buyer, rests on fewer than fifteen sales and is directional or anecdotal. The long view is five years rather than the usual two, because two years held too few sales to read, so these figures do not line up with pages built on a two-year window.

The third quarter of 2026, from 30 June to 30 September, held 1 closing, and the same weeks of 2025 held none. One sale is anecdotal, so nothing about the quarter is a trend. The history runs deeper than the window: 111 closings since August 2006, with a peak of 14 in 2012.

This table shows closings by year across the five-year window, as of 30 September 2026. Every year is directional or anecdotal.

The median house closed at $2,400,000 across the 20 closings of the five years to 30 September 2026, and the middle half of sales ran from $2,187,500 to $2,712,500. The median price per square foot was $619, with the middle half from $574 to $659, across the 19 closings with a listed size. Price per square foot is the closing price divided by the living area the listing quotes, which usually runs larger than the county's measure on the housing guide.

This page states no price change over the last year. The trailing 52 weeks hold 3 closings against 2 in the 52 weeks before, too few on either side to compare, so the key metrics above read "Not enough sales". The three sales of the last year are shown one by one instead.

This table shows every closing of the trailing 52 weeks, as of 30 September 2026, described without addresses. Each is one sale and anecdotal.

Over the whole five years the median close and the price per square foot moved apart. In the first half, October 2021 to March 2024, the median close was $2,400,000 at $620 a square foot across 9 sales, and in the second half, April 2024 to September 2026, it was $2,525,000 at $609 across 11, both directional. Larger houses sold in the second half, so that is a change in what sold, not a change in prices. It looks backward and it is not a projection.

Cash paid for 45.0% of the 20 closings, and the latest quarter's sale was one of them. Cash buyers paid a median $2,200,000 at 92.3% of the ask across 9 sales, against $2,450,000 at 89.3% for financed buyers across 11, both directional. The cash sales were the cheaper houses, so the gap is not a discount for cash. One waterfront-coded house sold in the five years, in 2024, for $3,175,000 at 97.7% of its ask, against the $2,400,000 median. One sale cannot measure a waterfront premium, and none is claimed, because waterfront position travels with lot size and build year. Renovated houses are over-represented among sales: 65.0% of the 20 closings carry a renovation the county recorded, against 28.0% of all 93 houses. The association fee on the 20 houses that sold ran a median $800 a month, in a range of $675 to $800, and the association's own budget is the figure to confirm.

Below, almost every time. 90.0% of the 20 closings, 18 of them, finished under the original asking price across the five years to 30 September 2026, and all 3 of the last twelve months did. The median sale came in at 89.6% of the price first asked, with the middle half from 86.8% to 94.7%. On the 18 below-ask sales the median gap was 10.8% of the ask, or $300,000. Only 2 of the 20, 10.0%, closed above the ask, and both were in 2021 or 2022.

Half the sellers cut before they sold. 50.0% of the closings, 10 of 20, cut the ask during their final listing, by a median 7.3% or $205,000, and 3 raised it instead. Houses that cut closed at a median 86.7% of the original ask across 10 sales, against 92.3% across 7 that did not, a directional gap. The houses that cut had already met weak demand, so the gap describes what happened and does not show that cutting caused it.

Relisting did not buy a better price either. 50.0% of the closings, 10 of 20, had been listed before, every one after an expired or cancelled attempt. First-time listings closed at a median 91.5% of the original ask across 10 sales, against 87.2% for relisted houses across 10, both directional.

This table sets the pricing outcomes side by side, across the 20 closings of the five years to 30 September 2026.

The median house went under contract 127 days after it was listed, with the middle half from 99 to 172 days, across the five years to 30 September 2026. Days to contract here is list-to-pending, the days from the day a house is listed to the day it goes under contract, never to the day it closes. On 8 of the 20 closings the pending date equals the closing date, so no contract date exists for them, and the 127 days rests on the other 12, a directional sample. From listing to closing, counted on all 20, the median was 160 days, with the middle half from 111 to 208.

The final listing is not the whole story for a relisted house. The 6 relisted houses with a usable first listing went under contract a median 1,408 days after they were first listed, against 126 days on the final attempt, a directional figure. Some first listings date back to 2010, so that longer clock counts years off the market as well as time on it. Check how many times a house has been listed before you read its asking price as information.

Six houses were for sale in the week of 27 September 2026, 6.5% of the 93 houses, and none was under contract. That is the most for sale at once since the week of 15 May 2022, across 523 weekly counts in which the median was 6 and the peak 19. One of the six closed on 30 September 2026, three days later, which left 5 on the market on that date. Four of those carry a genuine asking price, and the four run from $2,845,000 to $3,900,000, with a median of $3,420,000, an anecdotal count. No listing is described one by one on this page.

Supply rose against the season. Six houses were for sale against 4 thirteen weeks earlier, up 50.0%, when the time of year alone would have trimmed the count by 12.3%. That leaves a rise of 62.3 points that the season does not explain, a directional figure. Every flow here is a count of a few houses, so read each percent as one or two houses. No listing went under contract in the 13 weeks to 27 September 2026, and a contract only registers in this weekly count once the listing leaves the market. No house closed in those 13 weeks either, so weeks of supply, how long today's stock would last at the recent closing pace, cannot be computed.

This table sets the weekly count against the same weeks a year earlier, as of the week of 27 September 2026. Every figure is a count of a few houses and anecdotal.

Over the 52 weeks to 27 September 2026, 2 of the 7 listings that left the market sold, a sell-through of 28.6%, against 2 of 2 in the 52 weeks before, a directional figure. The third sale of the trailing year closed on 30 September, after that week. Of the 7 listings that came to market in 2026, 1 has sold, 1 came off unsold and 5 are still open. The long view is thinner stock than before: an average of 16.6 houses for sale in 2017, 1.6 in 2025 and 3.3 so far in 2026.

On nine complete years of weekly counts, 2017 to 2025, September through November has been the best run for a seller to list, and December through February has given a buyer the most choice and the least competition. Both rest on a stock of one to nineteen houses, and no month holds its rank every year, so read them as directions rather than rules. Neither says anything about price. On the season alone, supply would drift up by about one house between September and December, a rise of 15.4%, which is a direction and not a forecast.

That leaves two practical reads. If you are writing an offer, test it against what has closed, 89.6% of the original ask at the median, rather than against the asking price, and check how many times the house has been listed. If you are selling, the houses that closed nearest their first number were first-time listings, an association in a small set of sales and not a promise about your own house. None of this is advice about whether to buy or sell here, and it looks backward from 30 September 2026.